The black swan is now flapping its wings in Brussels. In the same way that the flap of a butterfly’s wings in one part of the world can end up causing a great storm in the antipodes – that is what chaos theory maintains -, the tragic flood in Valencia can cause a serious institutional crisis in the coming weeks. within the European Union. The election of the new European Commission has entered an unexpected phase of suspense, apparently as a consequence of the Valencia tragedy and its tortuous political management. There are more factors at this crossroads and it is important to know them. This week’s video blog aims to explain why Ursula von der Leyen It is currently located near the ravine and the Rambla del Poyo, terrible protagonists of the Valencian flood.
Von der Leyen was re-elected president of the European Commission last July after a negotiation between the three main European political families, popular, social democrats and liberals, an agreement that finally had the support of the greens. A complete pro-European bloc, without having to resort to those few far-right parties that are not part of the Patriots for Europe platform, led by the Hungarian prime minister. Víktor Órbánclearly aligned with the movement of Donald Trump. We are referring mainly to the Brothers of Italy, heirs of the neo-fascist party Italian Social Movement (MSI), a formation that today heads the government of Italy. The Prime Minister’s Party Giorgia Meloniwho in recent weeks has very vehemently displayed his friendship with the businessman Elon Muskheads the group of European Conservatives, along with the Polish ultranationalists. Vox was in that group before joining Órbán’s platform. In July, Meloni could not ally himself with Órbán, he could not break with the North American president Joe Biden. Since 1945, Italy has rarely been governed against the will of the president of the United States. Remember this information for the coming months.
Von der Leyen negotiated between June and July with the German Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholzwith the Spanish socialist president Pedro Sanchezwith the president of the French Republic, the liberal Emmanuel Macronand with the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tuskmember of the European People’s Party, but hostile to agreements with the extreme right. That pact left the Italian prime minister out of the picture, who arrived in the summer very offended. In his country, the opposition accused him of leading Italy into “isolation.”
The president of the Commission was re-elected in July after a negotiation between the three main European political families
The July pact did not please the president of the European People’s Party, the Bavarian Manfred Weberthe main supporter for months of the EPP agreements with far-right forces, with the only condition that they were favorable to NATO and supported Ukraine in the war with Russia. We are talking about July. The presidential elections had not yet been held in the United States. Trump, who says he wants to accelerate the end of the war in Ukraine, had not yet won.
Weber sponsored Meloni and wanted the EPP to have a policy of double majority in the European Parliament: agreements with social democrats and liberals, leaving out the greens, and agreements with the extreme right presentablein order to better put pressure on the social democrats on certain issues, especially three: energy transition policy, agriculture and immigration policy. In short, Weber wanted to correct European policy towards the right from day one, while Von der Leyen basically sought to secure re-election, without closing the door to future agreements with Meloni so as not to snub a country that represents the third largest economy in Europe. the EU.
Write down the following information to better understand why Ursula Von der Leyen It is located near a ravine. Weber was the official EPP candidate for the presidency of the European Commission in 2019, and had to resign as a result of the veto of Macron (liberals) and Sánchez (socialists), a veto that only met with tenuous resistance from the then German chancellor. Angela MerkelWeber’s boss. Let’s say it clearly: Merkel dropped it. There was a veto and in that context the candidacy of Von der Leyen, former Minister of Defense of the Federal Republic of Germany (before the war in Ukraine), daughter of a German diplomat stationed for many years in Brussels, appeared five years ago. Weber, for reasons that are not very difficult to understand, hates Von der Leyen, and has a pending bill with Sánchez and Macron. And it seems that he has glimpsed the moment to collect that bill. There are more invoices due at this time. Alberto Núñez Feijóolittle given to international politics, little given to the knowledge of foreign languages, has always considered that Von der Leyen has been too generous with Sánchez during the last five years.
The Spanish Popular Party has asked Weber for help to carry out a brilliant counterattack on Teresa Ribera
At this point in the story, the black swan appears. The DANA of Valencia appears, the greatest tragedy on European soil so far this century due to natural causes. A drama that has shocked Spanish public opinion. Overwhelmed by the terrible management of the Valencian government, embarrassed by the details that have become known about the Valencian president’s agenda Carlos Mazón On the day of the tragedy, and very concerned about the enormous force of the protest demonstration held last Saturday in the city of Valencia, the Spanish Popular Party has asked Weber for help to carry out a dazzling counterattack. The memory of Prestige weighs heavily in Genoa. Feijóo lived that episode on the front line in 2002.
It was about putting the focus on the vice president Teresa Riberaselected by Von der Leyen to occupy an important Competition and Green Transition portfolio, with the rank of vice president, a position considered by many observers to be the most powerful area of the future Commission, with strong sanctioning capacity. A success for Sánchez on the European board, which disconcerted the Spanish PP in July and accentuated Meloni’s anger, finally rewarded with a smaller vice presidency for Raffaele Fittominister of the Brothers of Italy, of Christian Democrat origin and therefore more presentable in Brussels, as he does not have former ties with the MSI. In Italy a Christian Democrat always appears in difficult times. Meloni had to save face and Von der Leyen gave him soap and water.
We are moving forward. At this point we must also remember that the figure of Ribera, a selfless defender of renewable energies, does not have the fervent support of important Spanish business sectors well connected with Brussels who consider her too “dogmatic.”
All keys are already exposed. Feijóo needs a firewall and decides to focus on Ribera’s alleged guilt in the management of the DANA, accusing the Júcar Hydrological Confederation of having provided confusing information to the Valencian authorities. (The aforementioned confederation, dependent on the Ministry of Ecological Transition, sent 98 messages about the flows of rivers and torrents to the Valencian Generalitat throughout the day, October 29). Counterattack to save soldier Mazón? Counterattack to spread the discourse that “everyone failed.” If the fault lies with many, responsibility is diluted. Remember: the Prestige. The loss of electoral support in the Valencian Community would seriously compromise the PP’s chances of winning the next general elections. Without Catalonia and without the Valencian Community you cannot win general elections in Spain.
Without Catalonia and without the Valencian Community you cannot win general elections in Spain
The counterattack was not possible without Weber’s support. Recent information from the Ser network indicates that Feijóo and Weber held a telematic meeting last Monday to coordinate the veto of Ribera, who was due to appear before the European Parliament on Tuesday. The negotiations for the vote on the new European Commission during the last week of November are currently up in the air. If the EPP definitively vetoes Ribera, the socialists threaten to block the entire Commission in the European Parliament. If in the next few days, a Spanish judge decided to open proceedings that affected Ribera, the crisis would worsen. I think we are understanding each other.
Von der Leyen, who had never heard of the Poyo ravine in his life, tries to mediate to avoid a personal failure, while a profound change in international politics germinates. Can the European Commission enter a crisis while Donald Trump regains the presidency of the United States and Germany prepares to go to vote in February? The whole painting is moving nervously. Everything suffers. Everything becomes more uncertain. That’s what a black swan is. A paralysis of the European project on the eve of the German federal elections could negatively affect the conservative CDU, stalked by the far-right party Alliance for Germany (AfD), furiously anti-European. What do you think of all this, Friedrich Merzleader of the CDU and probable winner of the German federal elections? What relationship does Merz have with Weber, a member of the Bavarian CSU, an allied party? What relationship does Merz have with Von der Leyen? Those questions should be answered in the coming weeks.
There are more questions. How far can Weber go to satisfy the demands of the Spanish right? How far can Feijóo go in his desire to dilute the effects of the Valencia demonstration? How far can European socialists go if they see Ribera in danger? What pressures are there below the waterline of institutional policy to prevent Ribera from taking charge of the important Competition portfolio? Write down one last piece of information. Next year, 2025, Weber will have to revalidate his mandate at the congress of the European People’s Party, a forum in which alternative candidates could emerge. The vote of the Spanish PP could be important in that congress, which will be held, coincidences of life, in the city of… Valencia.
Huge is the black swan.
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