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Somalia: A Nation on the Brink as Al Shabab’s Terror Rises
In the heart of Somalia, there exists an alarming reality check that transcends any intelligence report when it comes to understanding the dire security situation in Mogadiscio—the city where violence reigns supreme and the shadows of chaos loom large. And what’s the key sign that all is not well? The skyrocketing hotel prices! What was once a costly $700 reservation—which included safety measures like a bulletproof vest and armed escorts—is now inching up from $35 to a staggering $150. If this grim trend continues, it won’t be long before we hit the 2010 peaks again, a true testament to the deteriorating spiral of security in this chaotic city.
Enter Al Shabab, the Islamic terror group that has become a dominant force once more, reclaiming ground they were removed from back in August 2010. From their former stronghold at the Bakara market—infamous for the crash of the US Blackhawk helicopters in 1993—they have shifted to the deserts, focusing on a lucrative kidnapping business while launching targeted attacks in the capital. The group may have retreated from the streets momentarily, but that hasn’t compensated for the rampant fragmentation of Mogadiscio. With state resources now distributed among powerful clans, the transition government, barricaded within the walls of Villa Somalia, is struggling to maintain any semblance of order amidst the chaos.
Since 2019, Al Shabab has not merely returned but has aggressively expanded its reach through calculated military strategy infused with sheer terror. The startling advances of 2025 look dire: since February, they’ve seized key regions including Jowhar and Adan Yabal, while their militias—now equipped and trained—surround the capital with alarming intensity. Our defenders? A fragile national army and a dwindling number of international mercenaries with questionable loyalty. It’s clear: Al Shabab is not merely back; they are stronger than ever.
The Grim Parallels with Afghanistan
The unfolding situation echoes eerily of Afghanistan in 2021. A weak and mismanaged state slowly losing international support is collapsing under the motivated advance of radical forces, more adept than ever at winning over the local populace. It’s a disturbing reminder of how swiftly hope can evaporate.
“There is no military route that allows the Somali government to defeat Al Shabab in current conditions,” warns analyst Ashley Jackson in War on the Rocks.
In the midst of this turmoil, the Somali government boasted lofty promises of improving safety, yet they never delivered on those commitments. Initial applause from civilians has dissipated, replaced by the harsh reality of Al Shabab regaining control over areas previously liberated, from Oswein’s military bases to the heart of Mogadiscio itself.
Military Morale at an All-Time Low
The morale of the Somali army is plummeting as they grapple with infiltration and corruption. African Union troops, who once offered a semblance of support, are now dwindling, and the scandals surrounding their generals are becoming increasingly notorious. Alarmingly, some voices in Somalia are suggesting that Al Shabab should be integrated as a political force—something that could be the final twist in this grim tale.
A Recipe for Disaster
All of this comes against a backdrop of a city that had been reclaiming its dignity from the ashes, rejuvenated by foreign investments. But just as swiftly as hope emerged, one wrong move could plunge it all back into utter debris.
As the world watches, we must not turn a blind eye to this unfolding catastrophe in Somalia, for it is not just their problem; it is ours, too. The question remains: what will it take for the world to wake up and recognize the looming threat of Al Shabab’s resurgence?
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